Published October 2, 2026 in Market Update

A higher priced part of the market is seeing softer terms

By Michelle Doherty

Real estate, Primary market

These numbers cover the three months ending July 31, 2026. That is the period you should hold in mind as you read.

The Federal Housing Finance Agency reported U.S. house prices rose 2.1% year over year through the second quarter of 2026. Locally, some ZIPs beat that by a wide margin. But a higher price does not always come with stronger terms for sellers.

The ZIP that tells the clearest story: 92627

The Real Estate Data Aggregator counted 82 homes sold in ZIP 92627 in the three months ending July 31, 2026. That is down 23.4% from the same months of 2025. The median sale price rose 11.3% to $1,600,000. So prices climbed, but fewer homes actually sold.

Here is the part that matters most to sellers. The Real Estate Data Aggregator put the average sale to list ratio in 92627 at 98%. That means homes sold for less than their asking price, on average. That ratio fell 1.9 points from a year ago.

Only 25.6% of homes in 92627 sold above list price. That is down 9.9 points from a year ago, according to the Real Estate Data Aggregator. Buyers have more room to negotiate than the headline price suggests.

Pending sales in 92627 fell 24.8% year over year. The Real Estate Data Aggregator also counted 113 new listings, up 14.1%. More supply and fewer pending deals give buyers time to think.

How the other ZIPs compare

Not every part of this market is softening. The Real Estate Data Aggregator shows 92683 and 92708 with sale to list ratios above 100%. That means more buyers there are paying over asking. The contrast with 92627 is real.

ZIP 92649 had the highest median price gain of the group, up 14.3% to $1,515,000, per the Real Estate Data Aggregator. Yet its sale to list ratio sat at 98.3%. Only 27.3% of homes there sold above list. More money does not always mean more leverage.

ZIP 92648 tells a similar story. The Real Estate Data Aggregator put its median sale price at $1,525,000, down 4.7% year over year. Homes sold fell 14.4%. Pending sales dropped 5.7%. Its sale to list ratio was 99.2%.

What the wider market adds

Freddie Mac reported the 30-year fixed mortgage rate averaged 7.28% as of October 1, 2026. That is above 7% for the first time since January 2025, according to Realtor.com. Higher rates slow buyers down everywhere.

The National Association of Realtors reported 4.9 months of supply nationally, the highest level in over ten years. Locally, no ZIP in this market is near that. The Real Estate Data Aggregator put 92627 at 3.1 months and 92649 at 2.8 months, the highest here.

Realtor.com also reported active listings up 6.3% nationally from a year ago. In 92627, the Real Estate Data Aggregator counted new listings up 14.1%. That local rise is more than double the national pace.

One street can read very differently from the ZIP code around it. A single block with more inventory, or one with a run of quick sales, can shift your picture entirely. If you want to know what the numbers say about your specific address, I am happy to pull that for you.