Published October 2, 2026 in Market Update

One part of the market is seeing softer demand and more room to negotiate

By Michelle Doherty

Real estate, Primary market

Most of this market is still moving fast. But one ZIP code is telling a different story. In 92627, the Real Estate Data Aggregator counted 82 homes sold in the three months ending July 31, 2026. That was down 23.4% from the same three months in 2025. Fewer sales, more listings, and homes sitting longer. That is where buyers have the most room right now.

The Real Estate Data Aggregator put months of supply in 92627 at 3.1. That is up 0.9 months from a year before. For context, the National Association of Realtors reported 4.9 months of supply nationally as of October 1, 2026, the highest in over ten years. So 92627 is not as loose as the U.S. picture. But it is the softest spot in this local market.

92648 had the most supply at 3.7 months, also worth noting. Prices there dipped 4.7%, the Real Estate Data Aggregator showed. Homes averaged 99.2% of list price. Not far off, but sellers there are giving a little ground too.

What the sale-to-list ratio tells you

The sale-to-list ratio is the clearest sign of who has the upper hand. In 92627, the Real Estate Data Aggregator measured an average of 98% of list price for the three months ending July 31, 2026. That is down 1.9 points from a year before. It is the only ZIP in this market that came in below 99%. Buyers there are, on average, paying less than the asking price.

In 92627, only about 1 in 4 homes sold above list price. That is down 9.9 points from a year ago, the Real Estate Data Aggregator showed. Compare that with 92683, where nearly 3 in 5 homes went above list. The gap between these ZIPs is real.

Speed: not every home is going fast

The Real Estate Data Aggregator counted a median of 43 days on market in 92627 for the three months ending July 31, 2026. Only 32.9% of homes there went under contract within two weeks of listing. That is down 2.9 points from a year before. Buyers have more time to think. That is a real shift.

In 92647, the median was 42 days, up 8 days from a year ago. That is the only ZIP where days on market got longer year over year. Worth watching.

Where prices held and where they dipped

Prices in 92627 were the highest in this market at $1,600,000, up 11.3% from a year ago per the Real Estate Data Aggregator. So prices are not falling there. But fewer buyers are competing, and homes are selling below list. That combination matters when you are setting a price.

Prices did dip in a few ZIPs. The Real Estate Data Aggregator showed 92648 down 4.7%, 92626 down 4.7%, and 92646 down 3.6% compared with the same three months of 2025. Not steep drops, but real ones. In 92649, prices rose 14.3%, the strongest gain in the market.

The bigger picture: rates and national supply

Freddie Mac put the average 30-year fixed rate at 7.28% as of October 1, 2026. The 15-year averaged 6.60%. Realtor.com reported that rates crossed 7% in late September for the first time since January 2025. That matters. Higher rates slow buyers down and give sellers less room to push prices.

The National Association of Realtors reported 4.9 months of supply nationally as of October 1, 2026, the highest in over ten years. Locally, even the softest ZIP sits at 3.1 months. This market is still tighter than the U.S. average. But the gap is narrowing in some pockets.

One more thing worth saying. These numbers cover whole ZIP codes. One street can read very differently from the ZIP around it. A block with fewer listings, a different price range, or a school boundary can shift the picture entirely.